Predicting the future may be a waste of time.
Failing to understand it is a waste of opportunity.
Strategic foresight helps navigate uncertainty,
anticipate risk, and spot opportunities.
THE FUTURE OF DRONES:
Strategic Interregnum
Living through highly dynamic and deeply transformative "second drone age" makes strategic foresight an essential tool to navigate through the fog of uncertainty. Beyond technological considerations, there are broader drone–related trends which will shape the security environment of NATO and introduce substantial political, societal and economic consequences. In THE FUTURE OF DRONES: Strategic interregnum, you can read about the main challenges, the driving forces that will shape the next drone era, and its possible strategic implications.
Future of Software-Defined Vehicles
The automotive industry is undergoing a transformation driven by the emergence of software-defined vehicles (SDVs). The nature of vehicles is changing, as they are increasingly defined not only by hardware but also by integrated software architectures that enable new capabilities and enhance existing ones. The report - Future of Software-defined vehicles - concludes that SDVs offer substantial opportunities for innovation, safety, and new value creation, yet also pose systemic risks if security, privacy and broader societal trust are not adequately addressed. For policymakers, success depends on enabling ecosystems rather than relying solely on regulation. For industry actors, adaptability, (cyber)security-by-design, and balanced hardware-software strategies will be decisive.
DRONE FUTURES: ROAD TO 2040
Foresight from Central Europe
Central Europe faces many serious challenges – security, economic competitiveness and demography being just the most obvious. Harnessing drone technology may become part of the solutions. DRONE FUTURES: ROAD TO 2040 – Foresight from Central Europe examines how drone technologies are transforming the world. While regionally grounded in Central Europe, its findings have broader relevance. The goal is to help readers ask the right questions and focus on the key issues that inform investments, regulation, infrastructure development, and strategic planning – maximising benefits while minimising risks.
Coming up...
Ø From 15–17 June 2026, Évian-les-Bains, France, will host the G7 Leaders' Summit, bringing together G7 member countries, the EU, and invited leaders for high-level talks on global priorities. Discussions are expected to focus on geopolitical challenges, peace and security in Ukraine and Europe, the situation in the Middle East, economic resilience, and emerging issues such as AI and online safety.
Ø A busy week for monetary policy will see the Bank of Japan meet on 15–16 June, the US Federal Reserve on 16–17 June, and the Bank of England's MPC decision on 18 June. Following the ECB's 25-basis-point rate increase last week, markets will be watching how major central banks respond to persistent inflationary pressures, energy-price risks and global uncertainty.
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Did you know that...
... the Moon may hold more than 1 million tonnes of helium-3?
Helium 3 is an isotope of helium that is exceptionally rare on Earth, but scientists believe the Moon's surface contains larger amounts. Helium 3 has attracted attention for its potential use as a fuel for future nuclear fusion. It is estimated that, in theory, 25–30 tons of Helium 3 could power the entire United States for a year. In addition, helium-3 could enable clean energy production. Although commercial fusion based on helium-3 remains uncertain and technologically distant, its promise links energy, geopolitics, and lunar exploration in a powerful way and already shapes strategic thinking about the Moon as a future resource frontier.
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The term of the week
Black Elephant
Known or highly probable, high impact events that lie beyond the realm of normal expectations an are thus ignored or not given sufficient attention (Known Knowns). Black elephant represents situations that we are aware of and know well. Nevertheless, we refuse to accept them or we ignore them for various social, political, cultural, or economic reasons. This is a case of the "elephant in the room" - situations where fears or prejudices outweigh active action.
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