Attempts to predict the future may be a waste of time,
not trying to understand it is a waste of opportunity.
Marcus Tullius Cicero made a distinction between 'facta: what is accomplished and can be taken as solid' and 'futura: what shall come into being, and is as yet undone'.
The data we have are from the past. We don't have data from the future.
Strategic foresight can lead to a better understanding of the future, helping to avoid risks and seize opportunities that the future holds.
Historia est magistra vitae. History has a defining significance for the identity of nations as well as individuals. The claim that those who do not know history cannot understand the present has its logic, although Orwell warns us in this regard. Despite all of this, it is striking how much attention we devote to the past, or more precisely, how little attention we devote to the future.
Did you know that...
... current global electricity grids could wrap around the Earth 2,000 times? The total length is 80 million kilometres, yet it is not enough. According to the IEA analysis, the world might need extra 50 million kilometres of grids by 2040 to satisfy growing demand for electricity. In addition, 30 million kilometres of existing grids need to be refurbished. Both green and digital transition thus pose not just a major infrastructural and investment challenge, but also a unique business opportunity. At the same time, natural resources crucial for electricity grids infrastructure, such as aluminium, copper or steel may witness increased demand and accompanying geopolitical competition.
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Statistics of the week
According to preliminary Eurostat estimates from January 2025, GDP in the euro area remained unchanged in the fourth quarter of 2024, while in the EU, it increased by 0.1% compared to the previous quarter. In the third quarter of 2024, GDP grew by 0.4% in both regions. A first calculation of annual GDP growth for 2024, based on seasonally and calendar-adjusted quarterly data, suggests an GDP growth of 0.7% in the euro area and 0.8% in the EU in 2024.
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The term of the week
Futures Wheel
A brainstorming based foresight method aimed at exploring direct and indirect consequences of an event or development. The Futures Wheel method was invented by Jerome C. Glenn in 1971. It starts with a central event, trend, idea or value written in the middle of a drawing area. The consequences following directly from that event or development are positioned around it. Next, the indirect (2nd order, 3rd order etc.) consequences are positioned around the direct consequences in concentric circles to uncover further, deeper effects of the issue under study.
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