Horizon scanning (also known as environmental scanning) is the foundation of strategic foresight. It is a systematic process of exploring the external environment to identify potential threats, opportunities, disruptions, uncertainties or likely developments relevant to the issue or system under study. The goal is to better understand the nature and pace of change.
The basic elements of horizon scanning are weak signals, i.e. early signs or events whose occurrence is perceived as unknown or unlikely but with potentially significant disruptive or transformative impact if they occur. The posts listed below in the FACTA section describe events, phenomena, or facts that may have a crucial impact on future developments, and in the FUTURA section, they assess their possible future consequences.
Trade in China´s yuan is reaching new highs. In reaction to the Russia´s full-scale invasion of Ukraine West cut Russia from the SWIFT international payment messaging system and froze the reserves of its Central Bank. Unprecented measures led Russia to shift to other, non-Western currencies, of which yuan is the most visible. At the end of 2023 one...
Japan to make a bid for Australia´s planned development of a new warship. Japan will compete with Spain, South Korea, and Germany to win the contract. It is the latest move in Japan´s effort in defence cooperation with like-minded countries, and one further step away from the pacifist stance adopted post-war. It would only be the second defense...
The Polish government has approved the draft legislation necessary for the construction of the country's first nuclear power plant. The construction, valued at €14 billion, is expected to begin in 2026, with the first reactor to be operational in 2033. The plant will use AP1000 reactors designed by the American company Westinghouse. In total, the...
China has approved the construction of a record 11 nuclear reactors at 5 different sites with a total value of $31 billion, following the approval of 10 new reactors in each of the previous two years. This is part of China's ongoing efforts to address the increase in energy consumption while also meeting the decarbonisation goals. Although China...
Serbia possesses significant lithium reserves (estimated at up to 1.2 million tons – 11th place in the world). The Anglo-Australian company Rio Tinto's project estimates potential extraction at a level of 58,000 tons per year, which would place Serbia 2nd in the world (behind Australia, which extracts 86,000 tons per year, and ahead of Chile with...
The International Fusion Energy Project (ITER) fusion reactor has finally been assembled. But the reactor itself won't operate fully until 2039 at the earliest. It was originally expected to cost around $5 billion and begin its first full test in 2020. It has now suffered multiple delays and its budget swelled beyond $22 billion, with an additional...
Global spending on nuclear weapons is estimated to have increased by 13% to a record $91.4 billion during 2023 according to calculations from the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (Ican). All nine of the world's nuclear-armed nations are spending more. The US spent the most: $51.5 billion, while China and Russia took second...
