FORESIGHTIONARY

Backcasting

Back-casting is a method used to plan for a desired future by working backward from a specific future end-point to the present. The process begins with defining a preferred future and then continues backwards to the present. The focus is on what must we change in the present to create conditions that will lead to expected or preferred future. It includes proper analysis of the current situation, including existing trends, challenges, and opportunities to understand the starting point and the gap between the present and the desired future and the identification of key milestones, actions, and intermediate goals that need to be achieved to move from the present to achieve the desired results or avoid undesirable consequences. Back-casting is different from forecasting in that it starts with the end goal and works backward, rather than projecting current trends forward. This approach encourages creative thinking and innovation, as it is not constrained by current limitations and assumptions. Ultimately, it is meant to provide solid arguments for thoughtful and responsible decision making and planning in the present. 

Black Elephant

Known Knowns

Known or highly probable, high impact events that lie beyond the realm of normal expectations an are thus ignored or not given sufficient attention. Black elephant metaphor represents situations that we are aware of and know well. Nevertheless, we (sometimes even deliberately) refuse to accept them or we ignore them for various social, political, cultural, or economic reasons. This is a case of the "elephant in the room" - situations where fears or prejudices outweigh active action. An individual, organization, or even an entire society decides to ignore a known risk or opportunity.

Black Jellyfish

Unknown Known

Normal events, routine trends that can take on abnormal impact due to increasing growth leading toward systemic instability.It represents phenomena that we know or believe we know. In reality, we do not understand their complexity or potential impact, especially if they grow exponentially (there are cases where the proliferation of even such fragile organisms as jellyfish has threatened coastal power plants or maritime navigation). The metaphor represents situations that we think we know and have under control. However, if we underestimate their complexity and possible consequences, even seemingly harmless phenomena can have a transformative effect.

Black Swan

Unknown Unknown

Surprising, low probability, statistically unexpected events that are hard to predict or extrapolate based on past events with possibly major impact. It is the most well-known type of foresight metaphor. Black swans were considered nonexistent until they were discovered in Australia. The metaphor thus represents situations that are beyond the horizon of our knowledge, yet their occurrence can lead to the transformation of the systems being studied. Although the unknown is generally associated with fears, black swans do not necessarily have to be negative phenomena. They can also be unexpected turning points that bring about positive transformation.

Change Drivers

Internal or external forces, physical or societal factors that cause significant change in the system under study. They push change forward, in a predictable or unpredictable manner they shape the future dynamics of the system and fundamentally alter how a system functions. They can change the strategic directions, shape organisations, societies and markets. Change drivers are significant disruptive forces that are present in most or all scenarios, though they may have a different character and impact in each scenario. They represent a source of change that can affect the direction, pace, and nature of developments. While trends describe patterns or tendencies, change drivers are the underlying forces that cause these trends.

Critical Raw Materials

The EU's Critical Raw Materials Act (CRMA) specifies 34 critical raw materials: antimony; arsenic; bauxite/alumina/aluminium; baryte; beryllium; bismuth; boron/borate; cobalt; coking coal; copper; feldspar; fluorspar; gallium; germanium; hafnium; helium; heavy rare earth elements; light rare earth elements; lithium; magnesium; manganese; graphite; nickel – battery grade; niobium; phosphate rock; phosphorus; platinum group metals; scandium; silicon metal; strontium; tantalum; titanium metal; tungsten; vanadium

Seventeen from this list are deemed to be strategic raw materials (SRMs). These are raw materials that are of high strategic importance for the functioning of the internal market, taking into account their use in strategic technologies underpinning the green and digital transitions or for defence or aerospace applications, that are characterised by a potentially significant gap between global supply and projected demand, and for which an increase in production is relatively difficult, for instance due to long lead-times for new projects increasing supply capacity: bauxite/alumina/aluminium; bismuth; boron – metallurgy grade; cobalt; copper; gallium; germanium; lithium – battery grade; magnesium metal; manganese – battery grade; graphite – battery grade; nickel – battery grade; platinum group metals; rare earth elements for permanent magnets (Nd, Pr, Tb, Dy, Gd, Sm, and Ce); silicon metal; titanium metal; tungsten. To take account of possible technological and economic changes, the list of strategic raw materials should be periodically reviewed and, if necessary, updated.

Delphi Method

Delphi Method is a structured communication technique to deal with complex issues. It involves a panel of experts and uses expert surveys in a series of iterative learning rounds. The experts and their responses are typically anonymized to prevent the dominance of one opinion over others. The process involves multiple rounds of questionnaires sent to the experts. After each round, a facilitator or researcher provides an anonymized summary of the experts' judgments and reformulates the questions. Experts can revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. The process is run again in a series of rounds until a consensus is arrived at. The underlying philosophy is that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the "correct" answer.

Grey Rhinos

Known Unknown

Situations that are clearly in front of us but are not talked about (although all rhinos are in fact gray, biology formally distinguishes between black and white rhinos). We know they will happen, but we don't know how they will manifest. The question is not "if," but "when" they will occur. It is a metaphor for threats or opportunities that we remain blind to. Unlike "black elephants," in this case, we do not ignore them consciously, but out of ignorance.

Horizon Scanning

Technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities. Horizon scanning (also known as environmental scanning) is the foundation of strategic foresight. It is a systematic process of exploring the external environment to identify potential threats, opportunities, disruptions, uncertainties or likely developments relevant to the issue or system under study. The goal is to better understand the nature and pace of change. The basic elements of horizon scanning are weak signals, i.e. developments that are perceived to have unknown or low probability of occurring and a potentially high disruptive impact if they do occur. 

Nuclear Fusion

Nuclear fusion is the process by which two light atomic nuclei combine to form a single heavier one while releasing massive amounts of energy. If nuclear fusion can be replicated on earth at an industrial scale, it could provide virtually limitless clean, safe, and affordable energy to meet the world's demand. Fusion could generate four times more energy per kilogram of fuel than fission (used in nuclear power plants) and nearly four million times more energy than burning oil or coal. 

Strategic Raw Materials (SRMs)

see Critical Raw Materials 

Weak Signals

Early indicator of potential change or emerging trends that might not be immediately obvious but could have significant future impacts.