Central Europe at the Demographic Tipping Point

The UN World Population Prospects 2024 published in July 2024 anticipates that the global population will peak in 2084. However, the situation is significantly different in the Central European region, where the population culminates right now. Austria, the Czech Republic, and Poland reached the peak of their population curves in 2023, while Slovakia and Slovenia are reaching it in 2024. The exception is Hungary, which saw its population culminate as early as 1980. If the UN forecast holds true, the population of Central Europe will only decline from now on. 

Poland and Slovakia fare the worst in this comparison. According to the medium variant of population projections, Poland could lose half of its population by the end of the century, while Slovakia could lose more than a third. The negative outcomes in Poland and Slovakia are driven by a combination of negative net migration and low birth rates.

None of the countries, in any of the population scenarios (low, medium, or high variant), will achieve a total fertility rate (the number of live births per woman) of 2.1, which is considered the threshold for long-term population sustainability.

A particularly dramatic problem is the issue of population aging in Central Europe. Except for the optimistic (high) population growth scenario, there will be significant aging of the population. The median age is expected to rise from the current 42-43 years to 48-55 years by the end of the century in the medium scenario. In the negative (low) scenario, the average age is projected to reach 55-67 years, which, combined with a dramatic decline in population numbers, could potentially raise existential questions for Central European societies.

A unique aspect of demographics is the long-term nature of trends and the complexity of solutions. Even if solutions exist, they will take a long time to produce the desired effect. The solutions must be broad in scope, as the anticipated demographic changes will have a dramatic impact on virtually every area of society. They will raise critical questions about labor force availability, the sustainability of the social systems, the set-up of education and healthcare, and even the security and defense capabilities of the state. This is especially true in Central Europe, where for a significant portion of political elites and the population, addressing demographic decline through immigration is seen as crossing a red line. Given the long-term and complex nature of these solutions, it is essential to start considering them now. By the second half of the century, it will be too late.