Why do we need strategic foresight (2)

Where is the boundary between success and failure?

Forecasts are depictions of the future based on existing data. They are based on data we have available. The problem is that we do not have empirical data from the future. Even more significant is that we often do not realize this fact. By having certain assumptions about the future, we tend to perceive them as facts and act accordingly. The frustration is all the greater when these expectations are not met.

The first step to avoiding mistakes is to recognize one of the premises of strategic foresight: we only have empirical data from the past. Predicting future events is therefore modeling the future based on the past. It's like driving a car while looking in the rearview mirror. The problem may arise at the first turn.

´What is surpsising is not the magnitude of our forecast errors, but our absence of awareness of it.´
Nassim Nicholas Taleb: The Black Swan – The Impact of the Highly Improbable

The world has experienced several turns and crossroads in recent years: the global financial crisis, the debt crisis in the Eurozone, the Arab Spring, the rise of global terrorism, the migration crisis, Brexit, COVID-19, and Russia's aggression in Ukraine. All of this has been set against the backdrop of climate change, energy transition, the inflation crisis, the rise of artificial intelligence, and the ongoing technological revolution.

Ultimately, victors are usually those who are prepared for future surprises, while relying on past certainties can be a source of failure.

How can strategic foresight help?

Strategic foresight does not aim to predict the future. On the contrary, it works with the premise that there can be multiple possible futures.

The actual shape of the future is created by our decisions and the objective factors that influence them. Therefore, foresight strives to understand the forces that will shape the future and systematically seeks out possible disruptors of expected future - phenomena that can either accelerate or slow down progress.

It tests our assumptions, as the biggest mistakes can occur when our expectations are set incorrectly. It evaluates these assumptions in light of existing and emerging trends and looks for signals of events that could disrupt the expected development. This research is conducted broadly, because the greatest surprises can come from areas that may initially seem unrelated or unlikely.

To better understand the future means, above all, to be better prepared for what is yet to come.
Martin Potůček & col., Poznávaní budoucnosti jako výzva

The outgoing European Commission, at the beginning of its mandate in December 2019, quite rightly, focused on the future: it defined green and digital transition as its priorities. Much has been achieved in these areas. However, history will primarily remember this Commission for its response to the COVID-19 pandemic and dealing with the Russia's aggression in Ukraine.

In contrast, Russia, fixated on its past, sought to amplify its influence by weaponizing energy and attacking Ukraine. In doing so, it achieved the exact opposite in two areas critical to Russia—energy and security: it lost key European markets and extended Russia's border with NATO.

We don't need to know the future, but we can prepare for it.

Forecasts try to tell us what the future will look like. Strategic foresight aims to explain how the future could look and where our assumptions might be wrong. Most people prefer forecasts because they like certainty. The disappointment is all the greater when forecasts don't come true. Success or failure can often be determined by so-called wild cards: phenomena, facts, and events that are unlikely, subtle, or unexpected. However, when they occur, their impact is significant.

Attempts to predict the future may be a waste of time,not trying to understand it is a waste of opportunity.

A natural reaction in the face of turbulent and unpredictable developments, like those we witness today, is to abandon strategic planning. However, we must realize that by doing so, we give an advantage to those who actively work with the future. If visionaries are the ones working with it, that's the better case. But if manipulators start working with the future, it becomes a problem.

Strategic foresight does not predict the future but offers a guide on how to understand it and work with various alternatives of future development. On one hand, it is sceptical, actively testing our assumptions and expectations. On the other hand, it is optimistic, believing that the future can be actively shaped by our decisions. The prerequisite for this is better understanding the future.

This is one of the first lessons for today's era, which rejects strategic discussions and prefers operational solutions. The prototype of today's leader is someone who offers a simple recipe based on a simplified, easily communicable perception of the future. This is also a price we pay for an era that pushes us toward quick and easy solutions. It is a time that expects immediate and concise answers, ideally within the scope of a single social media post. It's the price we pay for technologies that facilitate communication but stifle thinking.