On the Past and the Future
On the Past and the Future
Historia est magistra vitae. History has a defining significance for the identity of nations as well as individuals. The claim that those who do not know history cannot understand the present has its logic, although Orwell warns us in this regard. Despite all of this, it is striking how much attention we devote to the past, or more precisely, how little attention we devote to the future.
Who controls the past, controls the future:
who controls the present, controls the past.
George Orwell: 1984
At the moment of birth, the entire life is the future. As the years
pass, this equation changes, and more space on our timeline is occupied by the
past. However, our fixation on the past hides two paradoxes:
1. The past is unchangeable. What we can change, form, and shape is the future.
2. In life, what is scarcer is usually more valuable. Yet, as the years go by and the past grows while the future diminishes, we tend to focus on the past and ignore the future.
Throughout life, we spend many hours studying history. This is good and understandable. What is hard to understand is that we do not dedicate the same attention to the future. Suddenly, we've realized that a large part of our society is prone to uncritically accepting conspiracies, and these are often based on a selective interpretation of history. Teaching the younger generation to understand the past (and hopefully learn from it) is right. But why don't we also teach how to prepare for the future? How to read between the lines, or nowadays, between gigabytes of data. It's not just about acquiring knowledge of modern science, but also about an overall approach to understanding and receiving information. The ability to abstract what is essential. To prepare for the fact that the future is not linear, and that today's certainties may disappear tomorrow.
On Individual Foresight
Strategic foresight therefore not only asks the question of what has happened (what?), but also considers what it could mean ("what if"). It is not merely a discipline that explores the horizon of knowledge, but also our mindset. Foresight is typically the domain of large organizations—whether governmental or private. However, it can also be an individual choice.
Critical thinking is the ability to filter information in order to distinguish truth from lies, information from disinformation, genuine content from hoaxes. It involves assessing information in context, evaluating its source and messenger, and cross-referencing the content with multiple sources. This is essential if we want to avoid getting lost in the sea of information and becoming victims of those for whom information is not a tool of communication and governance, but a tool of power and control.
Foresight goes one step further. Once we critically assess and accept information, an even more important phase begins— processing that information. Foresight asks several simple but crucial questions: Are our expectations and assumptions set correctly? What could disrupt or, conversely, accelerate these assumptions? What consequences could arise? What alternative paths could the future take? What opportunities and risks might this bring?
These are some of the fundamental elements of strategic foresight, but they should also be part of everyday thinking and decision-making, whether at the individual, corporate, or state level.
On the Seventh Generation Principle
Governments, managers, and often we ourselves, face criticism and pressure for what have been done or is planned to do. But the question should be flipped. We should also confront governments, managers, and ourselves with what we haven't done (but should have).
Look and listen for the welfare of the whole people and have always in view not only the present but also the coming generations, even those whose faces are yet beneath the surface of the ground — the unborn of the future Nation
Great Law of the Haudenosaunee
The ancient Iroquois tradition, which suggests that we should consider the impact of our decisions on the next seven generations, may seem overly idealistic in the fast-paced 21st century. Seven generations indeed span a vast amount of time. Yet, today's world pushes this question to the opposite extreme, often ignoring even the interests of the very next generation. The principle of the seventh generation, while idealistic, is also a powerful practical tool for building intergenerational bonds. It applies not only to the future but also retrospectively—it speaks not only of what we have (or haven't) done for future generations but also of what our ancestors have (or haven't) done for us.
On the Conflictual and Deconflictual Potential of the Past and Future
During the most challenging periods in Slovak-Hungarian relations, the tension largely stemmed from the burden of the past and its projection into current affairs and policies. Because the past cannot be changed, this approach was shortsighted and essentially a dead end. In contrast, what managed to bridge these disputes was a focus on the future: shared membership in the EU, NATO, the Visegrad Group, and the implementation of cross-border and infrastructure projects. That is why today there are nearly 20 new border crossings between Slovakia and Hungary, yet a joint history textbook project remains unfinished.
The Russian aggression in Ukraine or the conflict in the Middle East, these too have deep roots in history. Attempting to resolve them through reinterpretation of the past or seeking a mutually acceptable historical narrative is doomed to fail from the start. If negotiators in these conflicts could be given one piece of advice, it would be to seek future-oriented solutions—offering a vision for the conflicting parties. No one will forget the crimes that were committed. No one will invent a common interpretation of history or religion. But what can be formulated is a meaningful vision of the future. Like it was achieved in Western Europe after World War II.